Chebyshev's inequality


Chebyshev's inequality is an inequality that sets bounds to the probability of deviation of a random variable. Given a RV XX, Chebyshev's inequality states

P(Xμλσ)1λ2P(\lvert X-\mu \rvert \geq \lambda \sigma)\leq \frac{1}{\lambda ^{2}}

where λ\lambda is a positive real number, σ\sigma is the standard deviation of XX and μ\mu is its mean. Only the cases λ>1\lambda>1 is significant. When λ1\lambda\leq1, then 1/λ211/\lambda ^{2}\geq 1, which is a trivial bound since P1P\leq 1 always.

> and thus > $$P(h(x)\geq k)=\frac{E[h(x)]}{k}

If we call k=λ2σ2k=\lambda ^{2}\sigma ^{2} and h(x)=(xμ)2h(x)=(x-\mu)^{2}, we get the inequality.

This inequality says is that the probability that XX deviates from its mean by λσ\lambda \sigma is at most 1/λ21/\lambda ^{2}. For instance, it states that there is at most a 1/22=0.25=25%1/2^{2}=0.25=25\% chance that XX assumes a value that is 2σ2\sigma or higher from the mean. Seeing it the other way around, it says that at least 75%75\% of values sampled from XX must be within 2σ2\sigma of the mean.

This inequality is almost universal: it applies to all RVs with a finite mean and variance, regardless of their probability distribution. This provides universal bounds across almost all distributions, but because it's so general, it is rather imprecise compared to distribution-specific arguments. For example, this inequality states that there must be at least 0%0\%, 75%75\% and 88.89%88.89\% of values within 1σ1\sigma, 2σ2\sigma and 3σ3\sigma. The Gaussian distribution on the other hand is known to instead require a minimum of 68%68\%, 95%95\% and 99.7%99.7\% of values within the same ranges.